Mind the gap: IEA’S fertility fix is missing marriage

COMMENT

Guest feature by Dr Tony Rucinski, Director of Supporter Strategy at the Coalition for Marriage

The Institute of Economic Affairs has published a timely paper on Britain’s baby bust.

The report quantifies the gap between what people want and what happens. It notes an average desired family size of about 2.2 children – around the replacement rate. However, ONS reports a total fertility rate of 1.41 for England and Wales in 2024. The report also points to “Dysfunctional marriage markets” and reminds us: “A basic fact about babies is that it takes both a woman and a man to make one.”

Marriage discounted

However, when the paper turns to remedies, marriage fades into the background. The emphasis falls on economic levers like freer labour markets and childcare supply. Useful steps, but not sufficient. The evidence is very clear: earlier, stable man-woman marriage is the engine that turns intentions into second and third children because couples are far more likely to stay together. Robust large-scale UK studies illustrate the point: by a child’s seventh birthday, separation affects about 13% of couples married at birth, compared with about 31% of couples who were cohabiting at birth. Stability makes larger families possible.

Marriage appears in the diagnosis because it is undeniable, yet it is missing from the cure because it is politically and institutionally uncomfortable.

Redefinition of marriage

Since marriage was redefined in law, many public bodies have become wary of affirming man-woman marriage as a distinct social good. That reticence has chilled plain speaking and narrowed policy options. It should not. Open support for man-woman marriage is lawful and right, and belongs at the heart of any toolkit for tackling the baby bust.

politically and institutionally uncomfortable

Consequently, these are the practical steps the IEA paper largely omits and should have considered. End couple man-woman tax/benefits penalties that punish commitment. Let support follow parental preference, including time at home with very young children. Build homes fit for families. Offer serious relationship preparation and ongoing support. Restore the public signal of legal man-woman marriage as the normal context for sex, commitment and child raising.

Removing barriers matters, but so does promoting the norm that works. Honour real marriage and many couples will simply live out what they already say they want. As the IEA puts it, “Governments must mind that gap”.

Also see: C4M’s six practical steps a government could take to repair family life. 

First published on 5 November by Coalition for Marriage.  Republished by permission.

The Coalition for Marriage is an umbrella group of individuals and organisations in the UK that support traditional marriage.